Editor’s Note

Mohammad Khatami’s re-election as president of Iran in June this year provides an appropriate opportunity to assess conditions in the strategically vital Gulf power. His first term, following his surprise landslide victory in May 1997, eventuated in political deadlock—a standoff between the forces of liberalisation and democratisation spearheaded by Khatami, which controlled the legislature and executive, and those of the conservative clerical establishment, which retained control of several key state institutions and used it to block meaningful change. Yet the huge margin by which Khatami was re-elected indicates that the thirst for reform among the Iranian population remains as strong as ever. Given that popular mood, how long can Iran’s political paralysis continue? If and when it ends, which camp—reformist or conservative—is likely to emerge victorious? How good was Khatami’s record during his first four-year term? Does that record provide any clues as to how things will develop in his second term? These are some of the questions addressed by contributors to this issue of Global Dialogue as they attempt to take the political pulse of Iran at a fateful juncture in its history.

Eric Rouleau, correspondent for Le Monde Diplomatique, provides a snapshot of the political scene in Iran on the eve of June’s presidential elections. Sounding out several Iranian commentators, he notes the limitations on Khatami’s freedom of action but concludes that the president cannot long defer “a choice between democracy and theocracy”.

Mark J. Gasiorowski of Louisiana State University reviews the course of the power struggle between reformers and conservatives since May 1997. Weighing a number of possible scenarios as to the eventual outcome of that struggle, he argues that “the reformers’ goal of establishing a democratic Islamic regime remains a distant prospect”.

Hossein Bashiriyeh of Tehran University looks at the dominant discourses that have determined Iran’s political life over the centuries. He believes a new discourse, that of civil society as most recently championed by President Khatami, is beginning to weaken the chief discursive obstacles to democratisation in the country.

What are the strengths and weaknesses of Iran’s two contending camps? Reformist activist Abbas Abdi answers that question with regard to the reform movement, identifying a number of shortcomings that it must rectify if it is to have any hope of prevailing. Political analyst Kamran Giti undertakes the same task vis-à-vis the conservatives, who he argues should more accurately be termed “traditionalists”. He insists that despite successive electoral defeats, they remain a potent force.

In the two articles that follow, the connections between President Khatami’s domestic and foreign policies are examined by Anoushiravan Ehteshami of Durham University and Pirouz Mojtahed-Zadeh of Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran. They trace the manner in which internal reform was reflected in a new, conciliatory and realistic foreign policy that put national interest above ideology and whose symbolic centrepiece was President Khatami’s proposal of a “dialogue among civilisations”.

The foreign-policy theme is continued in the two succeeding contributions, which consider Iran’s relations with the West. Gary Sick of Columbia University examines the prospects for a US–Iran rapprochement; Ahmad Naghibzadeh of Tehran University analyses trends in the Islamic Republic’s ties with Europe.

The break-up of the Soviet Union and the potentially huge energy resources of the Caspian Sea have seen the Caucasus emerge as a region strategically contested by several key players, among them Iran. Svante E. Cornell of Uppsala University, Sweden, identifies the determinants of Iranian policy in this area that result in perhaps surprising military and diplomatic alignments by a professedly Islamic republic.

The antagonism between the West and the fundamentalist Taliban regime in Afghanistan tends to obscure the fact that Iran, too, has found the Taliban to be an extremely awkward proposition. In a detailed survey of the Islamic Republic’s dealings with Afghanistan, Amin Saikal of the Australian National University suggests how Iran may best overcome the challenge of its troublesome neighbour.

Iran’s economic performance under Khatami is scrutinised by international consultant Jahangir Amuzegar. He finds Khatami’s record wanting, but for reasons lying at least as much in the Iranian economy’s severe structural deficiencies as in any personal failings by the president. Improvement is possible only with deep-seated economic and political reform, he concludes.

At no time in Iran’s history has the press played as active or important a role in political life as during the first Khatami presidency. Pro-reform newspapers were crucial in articulating and promoting Khatami’s reformist agenda, drawing the ire of conservatives and paying the price in terms of closures and arrests. Mohammad Soltanifar, managing director of Iran News, discusses the predicament of the Iranian press.

The Khatami era has overlapped with a remarkable flowering of the Iranian cinema, many directors receiving international acclaim and winning prizes at major film festivals. In our final contribution, Richard Tapper of the School of Oriental and African Studies in London describes the work of some of Iran’s leading film-makers.

Paul Theodoulou
Spring/Summer 2001